Three down, Forty-seven to Go…
Yep, three states have held their elections to determine who their nominee for President would be. On January third, Iowa placed it’s stamp of endorsement of Barak Obama for the DNC nomination, and Mike Huckabee for the GOP nomination. A few days later, Wyoming (also run under a caucus system) held it’s nomination day. Since there weren’t that many candidates up for grabs to begin with, and Wyoming isn’t a typically important state in the National Election process, nobody really payed attention to the outcome. For what it’s worth, Obama won (because Hillary didn’t run), and Romney won (who cares, it’s Wyoming). Now, on January 8th, New Hampshire has made it’s decision. As another of my “public services” I’m going to give a breakdown of where things stand on both sides of the Aisle.
Let’s start with the Democrats… not because I like them more, but because it’s less complicated and less likely to give anybody a headache. Many in the “old media” are declaring that it is now a two horse race between Hillary Clinton and Barak Obama. To be fair, we’ve only had three states vote… however, Johnny Edwards didn’t win any of them. For some reason the media “gods” (or is that dogs? I forget) have seen fit to saddle John Edwards with the self fulfilling prophecy of being “out” of the race. So at this point, Edwards is running for the same reason Bill Richardson is running… They are trying to get the Vice-Presidential nod. You know, nobody likes fighting for the second banana unless there is a tarantula sitting on the third… Chris Dodd and Joe Biden would probably be better off saving their remaining funds and throwing themselves into buying their Congressional seats at this point. As much as I hate to declare somebody a failure as a candidate, if you are three states in and haven’t even registered a full percentage of the vote, you are probably kidding yourself to think you might come back for a win. That is called not registering a pulse and being in denial about it. So, Barak Obama’s road to the White House is not a straight and narrow road… especially since Hillary Clinton can now cry on demand. How do you contend with the feminists who are following a crier? “Obama vs. Clinton” going to come down to the wire on this one, but I can almost guarantee it will only leave one of them standing… and the world may be better off for it.
Now the fun bit… the GOP Presidential race.
Okay, of the five guys considered threats to be nominated, three have won states already, and one isn’t really trying to compete until Florida (remember, only three states have voted so far). Huckabee takes Iowa after busting out of the shadows like Clark Kent in a phone booth (thanks Stewart, I owe you big time for that one), Romney manages to score Wyoming (goody for him, but once again… it’s… Wyoming…), McCain takes New Hampshire (again… some people do like charging Rhinos, I guess), Thompson has put on a good show in both Iowa and Wyoming (I guess they watched a lot of Law and Order), and Giuliani has yet to get out of the starting blocks. Okay, let me try and break this down nice and easy….
Huckabee stunned a lot of people by winning Iowa… too bad he couldn’t pull off the two-fer in Wyoming. But there is a reason for it. Being the boondocks, they had to depend on a lot of local news services, so I would suspect that many people had never heard the name Huckabee in any gravitous circumstances. As for New Hampshire, with all of the independent voters, it’s hard to say what actual republicans thought of the candidates there. Huckabee did lose, but he placed third with more than 10% of the vote… that surpassed everybody’s estimates. So not only did he do better in New Hampshire than everybody thought, but he is looking more like a legitimate contender every day. Now Huckabee turns his attention to another shining stronghold of religious conservativism… South Carolina. Right now, Huckabee is leading in the opinion polls (but let’s face it, so was Obama in New Hampshire), with the next closest being Fred Thompson… and Thompson has a mountain to climb to beat him. Good Luck, Mike!
John McCain. Okay, you won New Hampshire… now what? Considering how many states are still feeling this summer’s “collapse” of the McCain campaign, I would say that the NH win is just delaying the inevitable defeat. McCain seems like a nice gentleman, and his history of serving the nation during wartime is impeccable… but that doesn’t mean I have to agree with all his policies either. To quote one of my co-workers, “McCain should just give up and go back to being a Democrat…” Personally, I don’t trust the man further than I could throw him… “McCain/Feingold Finance Refom”… need I say more?
Mitt Romney. For a guy with a baseball glove for a first name, he is doing better than I thought he would. However, considering he announced his candidacy in Dearborne, Michigan (Muslim captial of the USA)… Muzzie-lovin Mormon ain’t getting elected. Of the three states he could have won, he got Wyoming… woo to the hoo… must be a party in Salt Lake City. Now, he has placed second in two state elections now (NH and Iowa), and he placed under candidates that weren’t considered the biggest strongest anything. Considering his performance, I think the GOP would be better to look elsewhere for a candidate… electability-wise anyway.
Fred Thompson. I like a lot of the stuff he has to say, but he needs to pick up Michigan or South Carolina to stay in the race. Otherwise, he will probably get sifted out rather quickly. He would make a strong VP candidate, but unless he wins one of the two states mentioned earlier, I think his campaign is floating in the East River.
Rudy Giuliani. Not much to say because there just hasn’t been much of an exhibition of stregnth by the Giuliani camp. Rudy seems to have staked all of his eggs in winning Florida… so much so that he has been campaigning there almost exclusively for the past couple of months. Oh, and surprise surprise… Huckabee is quickly catching up in Giuliani in Florida. Never put all of your eggs in one basket, sir.
Tom Tancredo, Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul. Are you guys serious? Okay, Paul I get… but Tancredo and Hunter don’t really have a leg to stand on when they claim to be contenders for the part election. At least Ron Paul is an internet sensation… too bad for him that his success doesn’t go anywhere else. I think these three have all admitted that they are VP candidates now. I would fully expect to see Hunter and Tancredo’s tents to start folding up in the next week or two.
Hope that makes it all make a little more sense
PS: as a telling sign, I was listening to NPR on the way home, and they described Mike Huckabee as the candidate “who doesn’t have the most money, but who seems to be having the most fun. As somebody who has been following this race semi-passively for a while, it is quite true. You just need to look at the contrasts between the interview Huckabee did on Leno with the interview Hillary did on Letterman. Find em on Yahoo… it’s a little scarry.