Politics, meet Idiots.
Tuesday is the next “big” presidential primary, and it’s looking like John McCain is going to win… unfortunately. The main thing about McCain is that he wins many of the independent voters, of which New Hampshire and Michigan have aplenty(evidenced by the fact that McCain took both states over GWBush in 2000). I was reading a news story on Yahoo about the Michigan primary, and I was greatly intrigued to see some of the responses from the actual voters.
First off, did you know that Obama and Edwards aren’t even on the DNC ticket in Michigan? Yep, and with Richardson, Dodd, and Biden all out of the race, Hillary is pretty much the only candidate on the ballot. So, Hillary gets a gimmie in Michigan… to which Obama’s wife (when asked about whether or not we are “ready to elect a black man”, whatever that means) exclaimed “Ain’t no black people in Iowa!” What sensitivity! What astounding command of the English Language (pardon me, American language)! A slang contraction and a double negative, no less. The only way to make that statement LESS tactful would have been to curse at the end of it.
So now over to the GOP side… With the lack of choice on the DNC ballot, some Democratic faithful are planning on voting in the GOP primary (Michigan is one of those pesky states with open primaries). Add to this that the Independents greatly favor McCain over some of his other GOP rivals (most likely because of the immigration thing or the campaign finance reform stuff), and it looks like Mitt Romney is in for a slaughter in Michigan. Here are the words of a few voters interviewed for this AP story…
“He’s a centrist in my point of view…”
“He’s a republican choice we can live with…”
“I don’t want another Clinton.”
Now, I may be a political newbie… but somehow being the lesser of two evils doesn’t sound like the reason I would want to be elected. So here is how it breaks down for right now…
McCain ends up with New Hampshire and Michigan with stars in his eyes and no hope in a closed primary. Giuliani is STILL stuck in the starting blocks, and after putting all his eggs in the one basket (florida), he may lose his dozen to Huckabee. Huckabee has Iowa, and will more than likely end up with South Carolina due to his religious beliefs… making a 2-2 tie with McCain. Romney… well… Romney won Wyoming… a state where he was pretty much the only candidate. At this point, Romney reminds me of the Monty Python “Upper Class Twit of the Year” sketch (see my Christmas post to view said skecth)… “He doesn’t know when he’s losing, and he doesn’t know when he’s winning either. He has no sort of mental apparatus known to man!” Ron Paul is the perennial “also ran”, making tons of money on the internet, and gaining almost no ground outside of cyberspace. I would expect to see him hang around till Super Tuesday because he shows great zeal and naivete… a horrible combination. Fred Thompson… hasn’t really shown up much in the polls, I would expect him to be making a dress rehersal for the VP nomination (after all, we needs our “star power”). Tancredo and Hunter… these guys are pretty much a joke at this point. Hunter had a classic story happen to him during the NJ primary, and I’m sure I will get around to telling it when he officially backs out, but that will be then.
Hillary Clinton gets a hard fought battle in New Hampshire and a gimmie in Michigan, making a scary case for getting the next Presidential nomination from the DNC. However, with statements like “I don’t want another Clinton” coming from the resident DEMOCRATS, I would be surprised if the rest of the battles aren’t a bit more heated down the stretch. Barack Obama has Iowa in his back pocket and is in there swinging hard for Nevada (also voting this week). I think Obama will probably make a comeback in the next round because (A) he is black (B) his name ISN’T Hillary Clinton (C) he isn’t as violently far left as Edwards. Edwards, on the other hand… I would expect him to pick up a couple states in New England (because they are pretty far left too), but I don’t give him a snowball’s chance in perdition of winning the nomination because (A)he is pretty far left even by DNC standards (B) he is falling to the same “overly animated” speeches that did in Howard Dean (C) he talks a lot, but he can’t prove that he will actually be able to perform any of his platform… you want to turn over the health insurance industry in eight years? I hope you have pretty good hip-waders for the sewer that will open.
“Monday morning, the fan is gonna hit the roof!” — Kenn Kington